As of the past week, Bitcoin price has been trading below the cost basis of one of the most reactive investor groups. Based on recent on-chain information, the world’s largest cryptocurrency could face even more trouble if its price fails to regain this crucial level.
Bitcoin’s drop below $80,000 is causing losses to rise
In one X message on May 22, Axel Adler Jr. analyzes Bitcoin’s struggle to regain its Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price. The crypto analyst identifies this level at around $80,000 (specifically $80,217). For context, the STH Realized Price tracks the average purchase price of newer BTC investors. When Bitcoin trades below this threshold, it often means that many of the short-term holders are suffering unrealized losses, increasing selling pressure.
BTC trades below the STH cost basis. $80,217 = STH breakeven $77,550 = current price The average STH is underwater and losses are now being realized:
Net Realized Gain/Loss: -$176M Losses: $366M Profit: $190MUntil $80.2K is recovered, the bounces have not yet been confirmed.
Adler AM #175
… pic.twitter.com/R359OfOopg
– Axel
Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) May 22, 2026
Axel Adler Jr. specifically points out that these realized losses have increased in the Bitcoin market. The expert reports that net realized gains are now approximately –$176 million, reflecting the difference between $366 million in realized losses and $190 million in realized gains among short-term Bitcoin traders. Adler notes that as long as Bitcoin remains below the STH cost basis, the market’s future recovery would merely be unconfirmed or temporary retracements. Simply put, this temporary price recovery below the $80,217 threshold could be a relief rally rather than actual signs of a broader trend reversal.
Therefore, before market participants can judge that Bitcoin is showing bullish intentions, the price must break clearly above the previous STH support that could now oppose the rise in Bitcoin’s price. This is because, as the price approaches the STH breakeven (realized) price, investors become more likely to exit their positions, increasing bearish pressure.
Coinbase records the highest selling pressure since February
In another X messageMaarunn reveals that Coinbase is experiencing one of the strongest waves of bearish pressure since February. The relevant indicator here is the Coinbase Premium Gap, which primarily tracks buying and selling activity among US investors. According to the chart shared by Maartunn, the Coinbase Premium Gap has fallen deep into negative territory, coinciding with Bitcoin’s latest price weakness.
When the premium turns positive, it generally indicates stronger buying activity on Coinbase. However, a negative outcome typically reflects increased selling pressure or weakening demand from US investors. Interestingly, strong negative Coinbase premium readings, such as those currently observed, have often appeared during corrective phases or periods of short-term fear. However, these can also precede the emergence of local bottoms as sales depletion begins to occur. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is at a valuation of $75,514, down 2.56% from the last day.