A crypto analyst has warned against giving in to the FOMO and buying Bitcoin (BTC) at new highs. He noted that while the cryptocurrency could continue its upward movement and even go past $80,000, this does not necessarily mean the end of the crisis. the broader bear market. Instead, he argues that the move could be a strong distribution phase that could lead to further declines. He also predicts that Bitcoin could still experience a deeper correction a potential market bottom constitute almost $40,000.
Analyst Warns Against Buying BTC At $85,000
@Sherlockwhale, a crypto market analyst at According to him, this zone shows more busy selling than any other level in BTC’s current chart structure.
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The analyst based his view on a broader Fibonacci retracement structure derived from Bitcoin’s previous move between $97,000 and $60,000. He described this range as a full impulse wave downwards, followed by a recovery phase where the price has seen a higher recovery but is still facing sharp pullbacks.
Based on this structure, @Sherlockwhales identified the key upside levels on the BTC chart at $83,435 (0.618 Fib), $84,647 (0.65 Fib), and $89,797 (0.786 Fib). He noted that this cluster forms a key, untested resistance zone on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. According to him, untested resistance areas like this tend to trigger heavier selling pressure because traders who bought at that level are still underwater and may want to exit if the price returns to breakeven.
Explaining further, @Sherlockwhales stated that the average cost basis is for everyone US Spot Bitcoin ETF Holders currently stands at $87,830. This means that investors who bought the ETF in the last two years are still faces significant unrealized losseswith BTC currently trading below their entry level. According to the analyst, this makes the $87,000 to $88,000 range an important psychological level for the market.
He noted that if Bitcoin returns to this higher range, many ETF investors would reach breakeven for the first time in months. He added that this could lead to greater selling pressure as investors have been hurt since then its ATH in October 2025 may choose to sell their coins to recover past losses.
Likewise, @Sherlockwhales noticed that the short-term holder cost basis currently sits around $80,100. He explained that when Bitcoin rose above this base, it formed a local top as short-term holders took the opportunity to exit the market with a profit. The analyst emphasized that this pattern has already occurred twice, each time resulting in a sharp price drop. He now warns that if BTC experiences another one upward rally towards $80,000this could fuel a new wave of selling pressure and possibly lead to a similar pullback.
Analyst predicts BTC to crash to $40,000 and where to buy
Because @Sherlockwhales believes in it the most underwater investors would sell their coins for a profit at higher resistance levels, he warns traders not to buy BTC around $85,000, suggesting this could be possible. a bull trap. He predicts that the Bitcoin price could fall towards $40,000, which could potentially mark the final low before a new bull trend begins.
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Instead of buying at $85,000, the analyst urges investors to wait until October before entering the market. He noted that prices during this period would provide traders with the most favorable long-term buying opportunities.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com