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During his testimony on Tuesday the chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell filled the hope for a new round of quantitative relaxation (QE), and repeats that “QE is a tool that we only use when the rates are already zero” and that the FED “Long far away” from the end of QT. “This attitude challenges the idea that a quick pivot to aggressive relaxation Bitcoin and the entire crypto market could fascinate as in previous cycles.
End of the bull run for Bitcoin and Altcoins?
Macro analyst Alex Krüger posted On X that “we are older of QE”, emphasizes that some market participants clearly had to hear the position of Powell. Another commentator, Tagoo, noted that there is “no need for QE, only for the stopping of QT”, as a result of which Krüger is asked to respond that it can take “a few months” before QT would escape.
Felix Jauvin, the host of the Podcast on the Margin, commentary Via X: “Because the QE is coming soon Dreamers, I hope you have just heard what Powell said:” QE is a tool that we only use if the rates are already at zero “. You do not want zero rates and qe. That means That a lot of pain has to be done in the meantime.
Jauvin believes that the American economy has shifted from a period of stagnation to a more fundamental growth phase. According to him: “We can still see bull markets and a bid in risk assets without these monetary sanitary tricks,” because he regards this as a healthier, productivity-oriented environment and he calls “an economic golden age.”
Dan Mcardle reminded followers that markets can remain a risk “with a considerable economy and some credit expansion.” He warned the crypto community against anchoring expectations exclusively to zero-interest rate policy and QE, which suggests that a steady economy could still support the benefit of Bitcoin.
Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), framed Powell’s comments in “The Everything Code”, claim that QE is only part of the global liquidity photo. Although the Fed may not turn to QE quickly, Bittel pointed out that other factors, such as actions from the People’s Bank of China, private credit creation or shifts in the general account of the Treasury, can also inject liquidity into markets. “The Fed has other tools and they have been working with the treasury since Covid to smooth out the QT impact via the TGA and RRP,” Bittel noted.
He reminded traders that “it is not only the Fed in this comparison” and noted that the Chinese rates on their way to zero increases the possibility that China rolls out a form of QE. “In 2017, the Fed was a small player in the liquidity game. In fact, the Fed did QT and hiking percentages all year round, but risk paths were still flourishing and Bitcoin made a 23x after the sharp but short 28% correction in January, “he added.
Crypto analyst Kevin also claims that Bitcoin may not strictly require QE to thrive. However, he pointed out that “we have never seen a macro cyclus top in BTC -Dominance” during active QT, so that doubts about the probability of a robust Altcoin season soon. “I still believe that my analysis tells me somewhere in the second quarter, it will end, but if we take Powell on nominal value, then Altcoin’s season callers will see more and more lost than they are and are every last 2 years They have already been, “Kevin mentioned.
At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 96,334.
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