The traditional four -year cycle of Crypto could end because of the executive order of President Trump, according to Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.
In a new note for investors, Hougan says that the four-year cycle seemed to be intact to be Trump with the executive order “Strengthening the American leadership in digital financial technology.”
The executive order instructs the US government to promote Stabilecoins, to put an end to the prosecution of the regulations of digital assets, the evaluation of a national crypto reserve and other initiatives.
The four -year cycle is based on the idea that Crypto follows Bitcoin’s halvifications when the rewards of BTC miners are cut in two, which take place every four years and have the tendency to precede upward price movements.
Although the four-year cycle is generally accepted as the norm by many crypto investors, Hougan says that the pattern can now be broken because of the implications of the executive orders of Trump, the implications of which can take years to play.
“The thing that I struggle with is that the powerful positive effects of the EO, plus the other changes in Washington, will be felt over the years, not months. In the absolute best scenario it will take a year to coordinate and implement a new regulatory framework for crypto. It will take longer than for the colosses on Wall Street to orient themselves in completely on Cryptto’s possibilities.
If we only feel those consequences next year, will we really have a new “crypto -winter” in 2026? Will investors go in hibernation, even though they know that we have arrived a new crypto-compatible world? If BlackRock CEO Larry Fink calls for $ 700k bitcoin, will we really see a 70% pullback?
My gamble is that we have not completely overcome the four -year cycle. The leverage will build up as the Bullmarkt builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will arise. And at some point there can be a sharp withdrawal when the market crosses its skis.
But my gamble is that every pullback will be shorter and shallower than in recent years. Why? The crypto space has grown up; There is a greater variety of buyers and more value -focused investors than ever before. I expect volatility, but I am not sure if I would bet against Crypto in 2026.
For now it is full steam ahead. The crypto train leaves the station. ‘
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Featured image: Shutterstock/Delcarmat
