Journalist
Posted:
- The crypto fear and greed index reached ‘extreme greed’ as bullish bets increased at +$100,000.
- The retail market was back and could reinforce a price drop scenario for BTC.
Bitcoin [BTC] has been hovering around $90,000 for a while now, but market interest has remained high and has reached “extreme greed” status according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index (FGI).
This was the fifth “extreme greed” signal (over 80) on FGI since 2021, according to data from Soso Value.
Source: Sosowaarde
According to historical trends, an FGI above 80 coincided with BTC’s local and cycle top. In early 2024, BTC reached a local high above $73,000 as it reached “extreme greed” status.
In 2021, a similar signal correlated with a local top in February, followed by a cycle top in August.
Will the trend repeat and cause a price drop? The extreme bullish sentiment in the options market did not agree with such a scenario, at least until BTC reached +$100,000.
BTC options traders are looking at targets of $95K – $110K
According to Deribit’s latest data insights, major players’ positioning remained bullish as they dumped $75K and $85K puts (bearish bets) and raised $95K-$110K calls (bullish bets).
Part of the Deribit update read,
“Notional roll-up of calls from November 84,000 to December 90,000. Extra early purchase of Nov.90, Dec.90+95k calls. Two-way campaign Nov+Dec. 100,000 calls. Later dumping December 75 + 80k Puts + 90k Calls + Straddles. Buy in December+March 110k+ Call Spreads. Positioning remains bullish bias.”
Put another way, most hedge funds did not expect BTC to fall below $80,000 or $75,000 (selling puts on December 75 and 80,000).
On the contrary, they looked for a further rally, with potential targets of $95,000 to $110,000 between December and early 2025.
Similar price targets were painted on BTC’s 2-week chart. The next major upside targets were $95.8K and $102K.
With price momentum, the Stochastic RSI, inches away from an overbought condition, BTC could look to keep an eye on these targets.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
However, retail was back in the market, one of the loudest signals of a likely local or cycle top as whales always use these for exit liquidity.
Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price forecast 2024-2025
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju warned that a price correction could be likely, but may not mark the beginning of a bear phase. He said,
“If I were a giant whale, I would wait for more exit liquidity. It’s just starting. Imagine retail FOMO joining at $100,000. We may see some corrections, but that wouldn’t mark the start of a bear market, imo.”