- The price of Bitcoin fell by almost 3% due to economic uncertainties in the US
- Darius Dale believes that inflation concerns are currently impacting asset markets
Bitcoin [BTC] is in the news again after the price fell almost 3% in one day, reaching $69,134 at the time of writing. This is in light of the uncertainty associated with the United States economic scenario, with the same scenario expected to soon reach the no-landing zone.
In a recent one conversation with Anthony Pompliano, Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42Macro, discussed the poor economic situation and its impact on Bitcoin. According to Dale,
“We will continue to see impeccable disinflation in the coming quarters, but by the time we enter the fourth quarter we will most likely bottom out.”
He added,
“In terms of inflation being inconsistent with the Fed’s 2% target, we believe this is likely to cause problems for asset markets.”
Sticky inflation and its impact on Bitcoin
The debate about soft landing, hard landing and no landing is not new. Speaking about the current scenario, Dale emphasized that ‘No Landing’ refers to economic growth at or above trend, causing inflation to slow but not reaching the 2% target.
The lack of a clear economic trajectory has escalated the downward trends in the crypto sector, resulting in many red candlesticks now appearing on various price charts. Moreover, despite signs of resilience in the US economy, investors both in the cryptocurrency market and on Wall Street are skeptical about the Federal Reserve’s forecast of three interest rate cuts by 2024.
Echoing similar sentiments, Dale explained:
“In our view, markets are moving in the right direction in pricing out rate cuts and pricing volatility in fixed income markets, but sparing risky asset markets such as equities, credit and crypto because this is a resilient economy that do. don’t need money.”
He further noted:
“In my opinion, crypto prices falling is a flawed assumption that is inconsistent with market history. There is a lot of market history of reflation regimes and our clients are currently benefiting from the current one.”
The way forward
Dale’s view highlights that the crypto market is experiencing a new cycle, driven by the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
Despite SEC approval, these ETFs have faced challenges, evident by the recent net outflows of negative $233.8 million. Therefore, despite mixed signals on disinflation, investors remain optimistic about the upcoming BTC halving.
