Macro guru and CEO of Real Vision, Raoul Pal, outlines three possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s (BTC) next run.
In a new interview on the YouTube channel Unchained Crypto, the ex-Goldman Sachs executive says the most likely scenario for Bitcoin is a traditional cycle in which the crypto king rises somewhere between $100,000 and $200,000.
“I’m obviously very optimistic… I have three outcomes in my mind that I’m juggling. The 60% probability is that we have some kind of very traditional cycle and Bitcoin is pushed into the $100,000 to $200,000 range, and all other assets accordingly where they are on the risk curve.”
Pal goes on to say that the second scenario – which he thinks has a 20% chance of unfolding – would cause a massive influx of money into the digital asset industry, leading to a bigger-than-expected bull run .
“There’s a 20% chance that this early start means something much bigger, namely greater adoption and more capital in the space, leading to bigger price increases than people expect.
People are pretty scarred because the last cycle seemed shorter than most people expected, everyone thought there was one last leg higher and that never really happened… But maybe the shock this time comes from the outsized returns exceeding expectations to go.”
In the third scenario, Pal says the asset class could experience a forward cycle that is even shorter than the previous one.
“The other side that I struggle with is that too [that] the whole cycle is front-loaded and in fact it will be shorter but more violent in 2024. So these are the three scenarios I’m juggling in my head.”
Bitcoin is trading at $44,279 at the time of writing, up 2.73% over the past 24 hours.
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