Polygon vs Optimism: Which Altcoin Will Prefer Q3?

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.

• Regulatory uncertainty from MATIC had a dent in price performance.
• OP has seen massive accumulation since early June, unlike MATIC.

The space for L2 solutions has faced fierce competition, with arbitration [ARB], Polygon [MATIC]And Optimism [OP] angling for a share. MATIC kept more regulatory pressure on price performance, giving competitors like OP more edge on the price charts. So evaluating Polygon versus Optimism is critical for 2023 Q3.

Read Polygons [MATIC] Price prediction 2023-24

For perspective, bearish pressure in the second quarter caused both altcoins to break key psychological levels. MATIC fell below a dollar while OP lost $2. However, each token reacted differently to the early Q3 recovery and could provide a glimpse into likely Q3 overall price performance.

Response to Bitcoin’s fluctuations

Source: MATIC/USDT on TradingView

In early June, the US SEC filed a lawsuit Binance And Coin base for violating federal securities laws and deploying various tokens as “security”. The regulatory pressure saw BTC ease to $25,000, up from $27,000 – down 8%.

MATIC and OP recorded massive declines over the same period. Notably, MATIC, classified as a security by the US SEC, fell from $0.90 and only stabilized around $0.50 over the same period. That’s down 44% due to BTC losses and regulatory pressure from the US.

Over the same period, OP fell from $1.5 to about $0.9 before holding steady near $1. The decline led to a drop in value of about 41%.

Source: OP/USDT on TradingView

So MATIC lost more value than OP during the bearish and regulatory pressures at the end of Q2. But BTC outperformed both altcoins over the same period.

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During the recovery phase between mid-June and July, the picture was slightly different. BTC rallied from $25,000 to gain back $31,000 amid ETF-induced hype from institutional players. It rose more than 20% during the hype (June 15 – 21).

BTC’s rebound saw OP surge more than 40%, reversing all losses from early June. But MATIC gained only about 20% to reach $0.67, well below $0.90 before US SEC labeled it a safety. Thus, OP outperformed BTC and MATIC during the recovery.

In July, BTC fluctuated between $29.5k and $31.5k after the ETF hype subsided. So, OP entered a short range formation before rising above the June high ($1.55) following Ripple Labs’ legal victory. Further gains were blocked only by the D1 bearish order block (OB) from $1.63 – $1.88 (red).

Ripple Labs’ victory also boosted MATIC. It rose closer to $0.90 (June high). But both tokens faced price rejection after BTC’s sharp drop to the low $29.5k range in recent days.

Polygon versus Optimism: Third Quarter Outlook

A likely aggressive stance could bring some bearish pressure into next week’s (July 25/26) FOMC meeting. MATIC could play defense at $0.757, a December low in line with a recently invalidated bearish OB.

For OP, bulls will focus at $1.37, slightly above the H12 bullish OB of $1.4 – $1.5 (Cyan). So OP has a solid bullish stronghold that it could recover from.

Unfortunately, both tokens need to clear crucial overhead roadblocks (bearish OBs) to regain key psychological levels of $1 (MATIC) and $2 (OP) to show additional bullish intent in Q3.

Sell ​​vs buy pressure

Source: Sentiment

Based on Santiment’s 90-day Mean Coin Age statistic, we can conclude that OP has more potential than MATIC at the time of writing. For perspective, the metric tracks the movement of tokens across addresses.

If the stat goes up, it indicates a broad network accumulation, a clear sign that players are hoping for a likely rally in the future. The opposite is true – the decline underscores selling pressure. The latter applies to MATIC.

However, OP recorded a steadily increasing average coin age of 90 days, a bullish signal if BTC maintains 30k in Q3.

Source: Sentiment

While there was volume fluctuation for both tokens, OP saw more buying pressure, while MATIC continued the selling pressure. Regulatory uncertainty surrounding MATIC could further give OP an edge on the price charts.

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Who is likely to win Q3?

Based on the above indication, the latter could excel in the race between Polygon vs Optimism in Q3, given the massive buildup from early June and regulatory uncertainty from MATIC.

In addition, OP handled the huge selling pressure of early June better than MATIC. After that, the recovery caused OP to outperform BTC and MATIC on the price charts. Thus, OP could offer additional gains and sustain more bearish pressure than MATIC in Q3.