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Veteran Crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his exposure to Bitcoin and warns followers that although the bull’s cycle remains intact, the chance that Bitcoin has already reached a peak for this four-year cycle has increased considerably. In an update published April 8, Loukas described the reason behind the sale of a third of his model portfolio at $ 79,500, with reference to both technical decline and a deteriorating macro-economic background.
“I still think we have the opportunity to push a peak in the four -year cycle later in the year or even early next year,” Loukas said. However, he emphasized that recent price action and structural malfunctions in the graphs demanded a more cautious approach. “I don’t ask to be the top in the cycle,” he clarified, “but I say that the chance that it has increased a top … of that low risk – you know something that may look more like a third – a chance of 33%.”
Bitcoin Bull in doubt
The portfolio shift, which brings the Bitcoin allocation of the model with the rest in cash to 27 BTC, is not a call for an imminent collapse, but a hedge against increasing downward risk. Loukas emphasized that his decision was not reactive or impulsive, but rather tailored to a long -term strategy that was informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoin’s price history. He referred back to his video in February, where he warned that if the next weekly cycle would not support and take recent lows, this would indicate deeper problems. “In the third year of a bullmarkt you do not want to see important lows, like the person we had in February … and then being eliminated. It doesn’t happen often.”
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Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support problems on the weekly and monthly graphs. Although it acknowledges that technical breaks are not, in itself, reliable predictors of cycles tops, he claimed that they add weight to the dissertation that the market can transfer to the falling phase of the four -year cycle. “We are now … 29 months after the cycle,” he said, “so it is now deep enough where I just have to take this a little more seriously.”
Although the analyst remains the long-term long-term high lighting of strong price performance, ETF inflow and institutional adoption warned that macro-economic headwind could accelerate disadvantage in the short term. “There is a serious macro problem going on with rates, trade and the economy,” Loukas noted. “We have not seen an impact or disruption such as it in world trade in decades … which may be a complete global recession.”
In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin can fully disconnect from risk activa remains, according to Loukas’ vision unrealistic. “Because ETFs are so new, and Saylor and others – the institutional or tradfi involvement in Bitcoin – leads me to believe that a complete disconnection … is probably unrealistic.”
The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin drops to the level of $ 52,000 – a retracement of approximately 50% of the highlights of January. Although I emphasize that this is not a prediction, but an unforeseen event, Loukas stated that such a movement could offer a strong chance of return. “If Bitcoin takes his way by chance to say the level of $ 54,000 in the coming month to three months, I would think at that time that a 50% racement is sufficient … where I would like to use any risk.”
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He added that every significant rally followed by a lower layer in his vision would confirm a four -year cycle. “A big movement up and then another movement down … is almost a kind of the last nail in the coffin.”
Nevertheless, Loukas did not exclude any higher highlights later this year. He drove the possibility of an atypical ‘super-right-old translated cycle’, in which Bitcoin goes much further than the standard month-35-window-misschien around month 41 or 42 followed a sharp but short correction and then a continuation of the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would entail a complex double or even triple pump structure that the Cyclus patterns 2013 and 2021 followed the 2013 and 2021 following.
For now, the Model Portfolio remains two -thirds in Bitcoin, and Loukas repeated that he would prefer a bullish result, even at the expense of reduced exposure. “I would prefer to drive two -thirds of a position to $ 150k, $ 200k or even more than I would say:” Well, Bitcoin is back to $ 48k or lower. “”
Loukas ultimately did not frame the move as a bearish capitulation, but as a careful risk management. “I am essentially an approval of risk and capital … and as you get deeper and deeper into the cycle, the higher you go, the risk/reward changes of course.”
At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 77,743.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com
