In a recent tweet, Luke Mikic, a renowned podcaster and YouTuber, highlighted the marked differences between the upcoming Bitcoin bull market in 2025 and its predecessors in 2017 and 2021. Based on his insights and the available data, here’s a deep dive into the three reasons that differentiate the 2025 bull market:
1. The hashrate race: nation-states enter the fray
“Bitcoin hash rate goes absolutely parabolic, breaking through 400TH/s and another ATH!” exclaimed Mike. The Bitcoin network hash rate recently hit a record-breaking 414 EH/s, representing an 80% increase over the past 12 months. This growth is particularly astounding given Texas’ energy challenges and escalating global electricity costs.
Mikic explains, “This is the first bear market where the hash rate hits new ATHs…Is this time different?” The answer seems to be a resounding yes. Nation-states are now publicly (and perhaps privately) mining Bitcoin.
El Salvador and Bhutan were the pioneers, and Oman recently joined the league. Oman’s strategic move to mine Bitcoin aims to diversify the economy from its dependence on oil and bolster renewable energy initiatives, including limiting flare gas. Remarkably, it is still unknown if more countries are already mining BTC in stealth mode without an official announcement.
2. Choking the supply
Historically, bear markets have seen an influx of Bitcoin into exchanges. However, the current scenario paints a different picture. Mikic notes, “In every previous Bitcoin bear market, we have seen an increase in the number of coins on exchanges. 2015 – Increase of 800,000 coins, 2018 – Increase of 900,000 coins, 2022 – DECREASE of 1 million since March 2020.”
According to facts from Santiment, only 5.8% of Bitcoin is now on the exchange, the lowest since December 17, 2017. In addition, Bitcoin’s Exchange Depositing Transactions (SMA 7-day) fell to a 5-year low, reaching 30,798 BTC per day, a figure is reminiscent of December 11, 2016. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. take away? “People don’t want to sell BTC. The supply shortage will continue to drive growth.”
3. The accumulation of Great Wall Street
The BlackRock Bitcoin spot ETF application marks a turning point in Bitcoin’s journey to mainstream adoption. Mikic emphasizes: “The Blackrock Bitcoin ETF application will be remembered as a pivotal moment for the future mainstream adoption of Bitcoin. TRILLIONS of capital have now been given the green light to invest in Bitcoin.”
As the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock’s entry could lend unparalleled legitimacy to the Bitcoin market. BlackRock is likely to advertise Bitcoin and its new product extensively, bringing new retail and institutional investors to BTC.
Looking at the current price stagnation in Bitcoin, it should be noted that there is currently no new inflow as evidenced by the dwindling amount of stablecoins in the ecosystem. In the midst of the longest of all bear markets, there is simply no reason for retailers to get back into action right now. However, an event like the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF can abruptly change this and trigger a Bitcoin bull run (even before the halving).
In conclusion, it can be said that the Bitcoin bull market of 2025 is about to be unlike any other. With nation states joining the mining race, a palpable supply shock and Wall Street giants like BlackRock showing interest, Mikic’s final words ring strong: “Takeaway: NO ONE is optimistic enough.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $26,058.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com