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Why is Bitcoin meeting despite weak Macr data?
Bitcoin has risen by 5.41% this month, powered by tariff-cut expectations on a soft labor market, no hard economic prints.
Does this mean a solid bull market?
The economic uncertainty of the US, the federal closure and blind optimism keep the volatility high, making the rally turbulent for traders.
Risk activa again bend on pure “expectations”. In less than 72 hours the total crypto market capitalization has risen around $ 250 billion, with blue-chip high caps that shot past key resistance levels, which feeds a risk-on sentiment.
Zoom out and the Macro Fud is not nearly over yet.
The American economy slides deeper into the uncertainty after strengthening. Payroll -processing company ADP report That American companies have reduced 32,000 jobs in September, resulting in private employment up to 134,526 million.
Source: Adpempelementreport.com
Simply put, the American labor market is weakened.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, The Global Outplacement Firm, reported The planned fired by American employers in Q3 amounted to a total of 202,118, which marked the highest Q3 count since 2020, when 497,215 job reductions were registered.
After this data, traders in risk assets rotate, “prices in” a slower economy as a catalyst for a new rate reduction. But this undermines the story of Bitcoin [BTC] Move pure on “blind optimism”?
Federal Shutdown blocks important economic signals
The Shutdown has markets that navigate in the dark.
The suspension of operations at important agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), has created an important blind spot for risk activa. With the BLS offline, crucial US economic signals are now on hold.
This includes the monthly job report, originally planned for 3 October, as well as other critical inflation data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and producer Price Index (PPI), expects around mid -October.
Source: Polymarket
This uncertainty in particular has pushed the chance of a percentage of October to 90%.
As a result, Bitcoin has increased by 5.41% this month. However, this rally is not supported by hard data, but by bullish rate cut “expectations” fed by a weakening labor market, leaving a blind place in the true state of the US economy.
Institutional Bitcoin streams betting big on the economic paradox
The Kobeissi letter called the US Economic Setup ‘Broken’.
“We are 26 days of the next FED meeting with the suspended job report of tomorrow as the last for their next meeting.”
It mentioned further,
“So the FED reduces rates for rising inflation due to a weak labor market, but we cannot get important labor market data. And when we receive the data, it is revised twice before it is considered ‘accurate’. The system is broken. “
Simply put, the market is “blind” prices in a rate reduction based on a weak labor market, while inflation is largely ignored. An example, in American inflation skipped Up to 2.9% in August, which marks the highest level in seven months.
With the federal closure, however, the inflation data are on the back burner. For Bitcoin, the setup is upright bullish, with institutions that are income. Especially $ 1.3 billion flowing In BTC ETFs, who support this paradox.
But does it really indicate a bull market? The American economy is still entertained in uncertainty, volatility is still in the wild and blind optimism carries the momentum of Bitcoin, so that the ride remains jerky for traders.